Aviation Outlook
Beyond the Horizon: The Changing Skies of Air Travel
Unlocking Aviation’s Potential: A Future Fueled by Opportunity
Executive Summary
The aviation investment landscape in Q1 2025 is sending a clear signal: this industry is strong, stable, and steadily moving forward. While macroeconomic uncertainties remain, business aviation continues to show year-over-year growth in flight operations, OEM backlogs, transactions, and deliveries, with inventory levels remaining tight.
For investors with Jasmine Blue Group, this means:
You’re entering a market with high barriers to entry, real assets, and resilient long-term trends. You’re not chasing hype. You’re securing exposure to an industry that’s flying above the noise.
What’s Happening?
The Big Picture: Aviation Is Growing
Despite trade tensions and global economic questions, Q1 2025 delivered growth across every key aviation metric:
+2.4% in flight operations
+3.1% in OEM backlogs
+25.9% in total unit transactions
+11.6% in new delivery volume
+33.1% in pre-owned transaction value
At the same time, aircraft availability and public listings remained low. The market is healthy, not overheated. It’s rebalancing – and offering opportunities for strategic investors.
Why It Matters
1. Global Economy: Cautious but Functional
GDP growth held steady at 2.8% in 2024. Inflation concerns are easing. Central banks are cutting rates. However, U.S. tariff policy creates friction, especially for trade-dependent economies.
Why this matters for aviation:
Business aviation thrives when global uncertainty rises – it offers security, control, and time-efficiency. A volatile global market supports long-term private flight demand.
2. Flight Operations: Growing and Resilient
Q1 2025 saw another 2.4% increase in flight activity year-over-year. The U.S. remains the core engine, with strong seasonal demand carrying over from 2024. Fractional ownership is surging.
Key insight:
Flight volumes today are nearly back to 2022 peak levels. The user base is expanding systemically – not just rebounding.
3. OEMs: Busy and Bullish
Backlogs rose to $47.9B. Deliveries are up, though the book-to-bill ratio dipped below 1. Supply chains are healing, but uneven.
What to expect:
OEMs are confident. They’re planning for higher deliveries through 2025 – even if some orders get delayed. That’s production capacity catching up, not demand weakening.
4. Transactions: Momentum Is Back
Transaction volume is flying: +25.9% units, +21.8% in total value YoY. Pre-owned activity surged +33.1%. New deliveries also jumped +11.6% in value.
Investor angle:
Buyers and sellers are re-engaging. The gap between pandemic-era price expectations and reality is closing fast. That’s good news for deal flow.
5. Inventory: Low and Falling
Aircraft availability is at 7.2% of the fleet, still below the 10-year average. Listings dropped again – especially for newer jets. 69% of listed aircraft are now 13+ years old.
Why it matters:
Younger aircraft are scarce and in demand. This supports value retention and reinforces the case for well-maintained assets.
Where It’s Headed
Expect steady depreciation on older aircraft (back to historical norms)
Younger aircraft are holding their value
OEMs will keep ramping up output
Pre-owned market remains hot and balanced
Macro uncertainty will fuel private aviation use – not hurt it
Bottom Line for Investors
We believe the current aviation cycle is ideal for asset-backed, strategically timed investments. At Jasmine Blue Group, we don’t speculate. We deploy capital into real, revenue-generating aviation opportunities with global upside and local control.
Why invest with us?
Because we fly what we fund – and we fund only what flies.
