Boom! Market Just Hit $40B
Executive Summary
The business‑jet market is entering a phase of sustained growth and stability. Global Jet Capital forecasts near $39 billion in transaction volume in 2025, with 779 new‑production deliveries. Preowned jet trading remains strong, especially for newer aircraft. This maturing, balanced market is a strong signal for investors in aviation.
What’s Happening Now?
GJC projects 3,383 total jet transactions in 2025, with 779 new deliveries, growing to 3,778 units by 2029.
Dollar volume in 2025 is forecast at $38.7 billion, with $20.1 billion coming from new deliveries.
Backlogs are robust: OEM order backlogs exceed 62.2 % above 2019 levels, now topping $50 billion.
On the preowned side, new & younger aircraft are trading briskly; high‑quality jets sell within 60 days of listing.
Inventory for recent models is tight; buyers are working months ahead, not walking in and buying off the shelf.
Preowned market forecasts show modest, stable growth rates—3–4 % annually in units and dollar volume over the next five years. (Aviation Week Network)
What This Means for Investors
Right market timing
The industry is beyond recovery. We’re in a phase of normalized, sustainable growth—less speculative, more structural.Less downside, more optionality
With tight supply and strong fundamentals, the risk of oversupply or collapse is low. Depreciation will follow historic norms, not extremes.Demand for new & modern aircraft
Buyers prefer younger, efficient, well‑maintained jets. Older models face tougher headwinds. (AvBuyer)Pre‑delivery & leasing demand
Because delivery lead times are long, investors who provide bridge capital, leasing structures, or aircraft financing play critical roles.Structural investing, not timing the peak
Stability now rewards strategies based on recurring cash flows, predictable lease agreements, and selective upgrades—not speculative flips.
What’s Next?
We’ll see incremental growth above 3–5 % annually in both new and preowned transactions.
Supply constraints could tighten further, pushing prices incrementally higher for well‑specified jets.
Leasing and fractional models will gain traction outside the U.S., especially in emerging markets with rising wealth.
Investors will increasingly favor asset-backed instruments where aircraft collaterals, usage contracts, and cashflows align.
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