VC Winter Is Over — But the Survivors Own the Fire

Executive Summary

2026 did not begin with euphoria.
It began with discipline.

After three years of compressed valuations, stalled IPO windows, and shrinking LP allocations, global venture capital has entered a new phase — leaner, more selective, but far more durable.

The excess is gone.
The builders remain.

What’s Happening Now?

1. Fundraising Is Down — But Quality Is Up

According to recent Preqin and PitchBook data:

• Global VC fundraising in 2025 remained well below 2021 peaks.

• Fewer funds are closing.

• Average fund sizes are stabilizing.

• LPs are concentrating capital into top-quartile managers.

The spray-and-pray era is over.
Institutional capital is flowing to managers with real sector expertise and disciplined deployment models.

2. AI Is Dominating — But Infrastructure Wins

Yes, AI continues to absorb outsized capital.
But the real allocation trend is shifting toward:

• Revenue-backed models

• Asset-backed strategies

• Sector-focused specialists

• Hybrid private equity / venture structures

Investors want downside protection.
They want optionality.
They want yield with growth.

3. Exit Markets Are Reopening — Selectively

IPO markets are not “hot.”
But they are functioning.

Strategic M&A is increasing in:

• Enterprise software

• Fintech consolidation

• Defense & aerospace

• Energy transition

Buyers are back.
But they are buying strength — not stories.

What This Means for Investors

2026 is not about chasing unicorns.
It is about underwriting fundamentals.

Capital is flowing toward:

• Operators with industry DNA

• Funds that understand regulation and infrastructure

• Managers who can build value without relying on multiple expansion

This environment favors:

• Aviation platforms

• Training infrastructure

• Asset-heavy ecosystems

• Deep-tech ventures tied to real-world demand

In short:
Expertise beats hype.

What’s Next?

We expect:

• Continued consolidation among mid-tier VC funds

• Increased co-investment structures

• More evergreen and hybrid vehicles

• LPs demanding transparency and operational depth

The next cycle will not be defined by how much capital you raise —
but by how intelligently you deploy it.

Outlook

If you are an investor looking for:

• Sector-specific conviction

• Asset-backed upside

• Real-world cashflow exposure

• Aviation and infrastructure alpha

We are opening selective access to our dealroom for aligned partners.

2026 is not the year to be loud.
It is the year to be positioned.

Let’s build quietly — and win structurally.